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[Chat(Android)] Monsterhunting - scientifically explained

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Posted on 2017-11-29 12:22:03 | Show thread starter's posts only

About myself : I'm a developer. I part of developer team to implement the loot system for world of warcraft. I have some background knowledge about random generators, pseudo random generators, session based random generators, anti ragequit generators, loot groups, statistical analysis, data gathering, back engineering...

The point of this topic is to eliminate the BELIEVE that hunting level 2 is better than hunting level 1 monsters. I made this table for myself to KNOW instead BELIEVE how is better to do monster hunting. Every time i see a 300 gem loot my heart pounds. But it is better to get 10 times 50gems than once 300 gem.

  Table should be finished when loot drop chance for 10kwood/stone and 50kwood/stone are close. I expect these to have similar drop chance. If they are not close, i need to add more statistical data
 Hunting team is based on my team. 2 hits level 1. 7 hits lvl 2 ( generic case )... !!!
 The data collected is from guild point of view. Personal loot fades compared to guild loot. You get avg 3-4 loots per kill from lvl 1, and you get 100 loots from guild. Your personal loot represents just 3.5% of your total loot. Level 2 kill gets you more selfish loot and less guild loot.
 The data presented here might change in case IGG makes changes to the game.
  In case you wish to challenge the numbers from here, i advise to have minimum 200 kills of the same monster type and level. At least 2000 kills is advised. 10000 kills should eliminate possible errors and provide a decent statistic.

Not so obvious facts :
- monster hunting guild advances 200% faster than a guild that ignores lvl 1 monster hunting
- you can obtain 50% more resource from monster hunting than from farming rss 24 hours a day with 7 armies ( except gold ). For this the whole guild should farm lvl 1 monsters.
- the cheapest high level purple item requires 768 ultra rare mats. Guessing drop chance is 0.02%, guild should kill around 1536000 level 1 monsters. Which should take about 4 years for a monster hunting guild. The numbers are large estimates only and they are based on luck.
- some drops do not appear in guild gifts. Ex : wall repair, troop heal, holy stars..... 
- rare mats do not drop from guild gifts. For these you probably should hunt monster level 2
- not all monster types have the same drop chance. Example frost wing lvl 1 has at least 5 times higher double drop chance than other monster types.
- hunt level 1 for resource and speedups
- hunt level 2 for gear
- hunt level 3 for special loots : relocator
- once you can 3 shot a level 2 monster you should stop hunting level 1 monsters

Summarized results :
- it is about 10 times better if the whole guild farms monster level 1 if you want resource compared to lvl 2
- it is about 6 times better if the whole guild farms monster level 1 if you want speedups compared to lvl 2

If the !whole guild! would hunt. One person could get these every day from opening guild gifts

Monster LevelGuild kill count a dayDouble loot chanceGold / dayResource / dayShield hours / daygem / dayspeedup minutes / day
121007.38 %343.61 K122.72 M112711876
240050.36 %42.2 K12.02 M1267321
310049.01 %2210264.9 K03034
410040 %24.61 K5

Chance of a loot type to drop based on monster level

LevelKill Count10 Minute Research Speed up10 Minute Speed up100 Gems10k Ore10k Stone10k Wood15 Minute Research Speed up15 Minute Speed up150k Food150k Ore150k Stone150k Wood15k Gold200 Gems24h Shield30 Minute Research Speed up30 Minute Speed up300 Gems30k Food3h Research Speed up3h Speed up3k Gold3k Wood400 Gems4h Shield50 Gems500k Food50k Gold50k Ore50k Stone50k Wood60 Minute Research Speed up60 Minute Speed up8h Research Speed up8h Shield8h Speed upCommon Hero ChestRandom RelocatorRare Hero ChestRelocatorUncommon Hero Chestmat 0mat 1mat 2mat 3mat 4

Chance of a loot type to drop based on monster type and level

MonsterLevelKill CountDouble Loot chance10 Minute Research Speed up10 Minute Speed up100 Gems10k Ore10k Stone10k Wood15 Minute Research Speed up15 Minute Speed up150k Food150k Ore150k Stone150k Wood15k Gold200 Gems24h Shield30 Minute Research Speed up30 Minute Speed up300 Gems30k Food3h Research Speed up3h Speed up3k Gold3k Wood400 Gems4h Shield50 Gems500k Food50k Gold50k Ore50k Stone50k Wood60 Minute Research Speed up60 Minute Speed up8h Research Speed up8h Shield8h Speed upCommon Hero ChestRandom RelocatorRare Hero ChestRelocatorUncommon Hero Chestmat 0mat 1mat 2mat 3mat 4
Bon Vivian12340.42%2.99%3.84%0.85%9.4%10.68%10.68%1.7%1.7%2.13%2.56%2.13%2.13%10.25%9.82%0.85%0.85%3.41%1.7%1.7%1.7%0.42%7.69%3.41%7.26%
Gream Reaper14974.02%6.23%2.61%1%8.45%10.46%6.23%2.21%2.61%3.21%2.61%1.6%1.2%9.65%7.84%0.8%1.6%2.41%2.81%3.21%1.2%0.6%8.24%1.4%0.2%7.24%4.22%
Hell Drider13780.52%4.76%2.64%1.32%8.46%8.2%6.61%3.17%2.91%1.58%3.17%1.05%1.85%5.02%10.58%0.79%2.11%3.96%3.96%3.96%1.05%1.05%9.78%2.38%0.52%4.49%4.49%
Jade Wyrm132614.72%6.44%2.14%0.61%6.13%5.21%7.36%3.06%1.53%2.76%3.68%0.92%1.53%5.82%7.66%0.92%1.84%2.45%2.45%1.22%0.92%0.61%7.66%7.36%8.89%10.73%
Mecha Trojan12538.69%4.34%2.37%9.09%9.48%7.5%2.37%2.37%3.16%1.58%2.37%1.58%9.09%6.71%0.39%1.58%2.76%1.97%4.34%1.58%1.58%5.53%1.58%8.3%8.3%
Mega Maggot129710.43%5.05%4.04%1.01%5.05%8.08%7.74%3.03%3.03%3.7%2.69%1.68%1.68%9.76%7.4%0.33%0.67%2.69%4.37%2.35%1.01%0.67%7.74%3.7%4.37%8.08%
Queen Bee14111.7%4.86%3.4%0.24%5.35%8.75%8.75%4.37%1.7%4.13%2.91%2.18%1.7%8.51%8.51%0.48%0.97%2.91%3.16%3.89%1.45%1.21%9.24%1.7%0.24%3.89%5.35%
Snow Beast12826.38%6.02%3.54%4.6%11.34%6.73%2.83%1.41%4.25%4.25%2.12%1.06%9.21%5.31%1.77%3.54%2.83%5.31%0.7%0.7%7.8%1.06%3.9%4.25%5.31%
Tidal Titan12370.42%5.9%3.79%0.84%6.75%9.7%10.54%3.37%2.95%2.1%3.79%2.1%1.68%9.28%5.9%0.84%2.95%2.95%2.1%2.53%0.42%7.17%2.53%0.42%4.64%4.64%
Bon Vivian27852.56%2.56%3.84%2.56%11.53%2.56%2.56%1.28%1.28%1.28%2.56%2.56%1.28%3.84%2.56%2.56%3.84%1.28%1.28%1.28%1.28%1.28%3.84%7.69%1.28%7.69%11.53%12.82%
Gream Reaper213148.09%3.05%3.05%6.1%6.1%8.39%1.52%0.76%0.76%3.05%1.52%1.52%1.52%1.52%6.1%1.52%0.76%9.92%0.76%1.52%2.29%0.76%1.52%2.29%3.05%3.05%1.52%0.76%5.34%0.76%9.16%9.92%
Hell Drider210955.96%3.66%1.83%7.33%9.17%5.5%7.33%3.66%3.66%1.83%2.75%0.91%2.75%0.91%0.91%7.33%1.83%6.42%1.83%2.75%0.91%2.75%1.83%3.66%0.91%0.91%4.58%0.91%5.5%5.5%
Jade Wyrm28859.09%5.68%5.68%4.54%11.36%6.81%3.4%1.13%3.4%1.13%1.13%2.27%1.13%2.27%9.09%2.27%1.13%4.54%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%1.13%2.27%1.13%9.09%3.4%5.68%5.68%
Mecha Trojan26363.49%1.58%3.17%6.34%6.34%6.34%3.17%4.76%1.58%1.58%6.34%1.58%4.76%1.58%4.76%1.58%3.17%1.58%3.17%1.58%6.34%3.17%1.58%1.58%11.11%11.11%
Mega Maggot211044.54%0.9%4.54%5.45%3.63%6.36%3.63%3.63%2.72%0.9%2.72%1.81%2.72%0.9%0.9%4.54%0.9%2.72%5.45%0.9%1.81%6.36%2.72%2.72%1.81%3.63%0.9%1.81%9.09%3.63%5.45%4.54%
Queen Bee210352.42%3.88%1.94%9.7%3.88%7.76%0.97%3.88%1.94%0.97%0.97%1.94%0.97%2.91%0.97%4.85%0.97%3.88%8.73%0.97%0.97%0.97%1.94%4.85%2.91%0.97%2.91%2.91%6.79%3.88%8.73%
Snow Beast210139.6%1.98%5.94%5.94%3.96%4.95%3.96%3.96%0.99%1.98%1.98%2.97%1.98%2.97%1.98%0.99%6.93%0.99%0.99%8.91%1.98%0.99%0.99%1.98%3.96%1.98%2.97%1.98%0.99%0.99%0.99%6.93%2.97%1.98%3.96%
Tidal Titan24643.47%4.34%4.34%4.34%4.34%2.17%4.34%2.17%2.17%2.17%6.52%2.17%2.17%6.52%4.34%2.17%2.17%2.17%2.17%6.52%4.34%2.17%10.86%2.17%4.34%8.69%
Bon Vivian3520%40%20%20%20%
Gream Reaper3977.77%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%
Hell Drider3666.66%16.66%16.66%16.66%16.66%16.66%16.66%
Jade Wyrm3475%25%25%25%25%
Mecha Trojan31100%100%
Mega Maggot3450%25%25%25%25%
Queen Bee31442.85%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%21.42%7.14%14.28%14.28%
Snow Beast3944.44%11.11%11.11%22.22%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%
Tidal Titan3333.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%
Gream Reaper410%100%


Posted on 2017-11-30 04:44:18 | Show thread starter's posts only

- added 300 more kills
- loot stacking is counted into energy cost / drop

Posted on 2017-12-01 04:36:54 | Show thread starter's posts only

- added expected outcome of a monster hunting oriented guild

Posted on 2017-12-04 05:41:30 | Show thread starter's posts only

- added double loot chance. A more precise estimation for estimated income from guild loots
- added estimated resource income column

Posted on 2017-12-04 07:47:34 | Show thread starter's posts only

- merged material names to be able to calculate a chance for ultra rare matrial drop chances. Once i have over 10000 kills per monster type i can separate these again ( 0.05 % dropchance atm ).

Posted on 2017-12-04 10:09:09 | Show thread starter's posts only

- added "Not so obvious facts" section

Posted on 2017-12-11 05:54:33 | Show thread starter's posts only

I think I'll just leave this here :D

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Posted on 2017-12-12 16:20:53 | Show thread starter's posts only

gosh this is amazing 0.o sharing with guild and keep up the work :O:D:O:D

Telrun [H:U]              (●´ω`●)

Line ID: Telrun
Posted on 2017-12-13 04:31:01 | Show thread starter's posts only

- managed to make a full rotation of monsters. Each level 1 type has a few kills to give some idea about odds to get a specific loot
- level 1 statistics are decently stable
- level 2 monsters could use another 1000 kills
- level 3 are far from finished